Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
